Methodology Business as usual scenario Annual statistics published by the government on cigarette prices and retail sale volumes were entered into the WHO Tobacco Tax Simulation (TaXSiM) model to create a baseline profile of Chinas market in 2016.1013 This baseline includes the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) finding from 2015 that 27.7% of adults smoke.2 The TaXSiM model was initially developed as a tool to predict the short-term impact of tax increases on average cigarette prices, consumption and excise revenue.14 15 However, it has been extended in this study by incorporating UN projections of key macroeconomic variables (adult population by gender, economic growth and inflation).16 17 Two microeconomic or behavioural variablesthe price and income elasticities of demandalso determine the path for cigarette consumption
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However, of revenue gathered by states from tobacco taxes and tobacco industry legal settlements, overall spending on smoking prevention is well below the levels recommended by the CDC
